My stupid predictions for the 21st century
Some of these are obvious; others are more inspired. Not meant to be doomer, optimistic, or unrealistically biased towards any particular group.
- 1920s-style progressive eugenics will make a big comeback, starting with egg selection. Rich people will commonly have families of 20+ kids with whom they interact minimally and who are raised by teams of nannies similar to the turn of the last century aristocrats. The biological disparity between rich and poor will become a significant issue; some European countries will begin publicly funded genetic engineering clinics for the poor.
- Genetically engineered "bio-error" plague inevitably kills off several percentage points of the world population.
- The world population never reaches 9.5 billion. Demographic decline hits China hard, and around 2040 Africa starts experiencing below-replacement birthrates.
- US will more closely resemble Latin America: Uber-wealthy mestizo class living in gated communities, dollar store strip malls for everyone else. American empire will experience their Suez Crisis moment much earlier than anticipated and that will change the dynamic of all US politics.
- The US will have a black male conservative and wasian male democrat president before a white female democrat or gay male president. The office of the president is too closely associated with paternal masculinity.
- Single people's rights will become a woke issue, with campaigns on removing "child normalization" from popular media. What is today described as "gay ebonics" will become the default American vernacular. Most advertisements will be directed at unmarried college-educated millennials until the 2060s and American culture will increasingly focus on extending the boundaries of youth. Multi-family homes will become normalized.
- The US Olympic basketball will begin consistently missing out on gold in the next one or two Olympics. MMA will become the second most-watched sport in the world after soccer.
- Latin America will more closely resemble rural America. Several Latin American countries will become predominantly evangelical by ~2030, with property gospel politics decided by megachurch-approved strongmen. Cuba will collapse and return to being a hub of international crime run out of Miami.
- Iran and/or Saudi collapse in the next decade. UAE will take advantage and become modern-day Singapore but with 80% more apartheid. Sudan, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and several other MENA countries are ruled by deeply unpopular UAE-backed Islamist strongmen who prevent migrants from reaching Europe in exchange for arms and money.
- Pantsuit libs and far-right reconcile in Central Europe: socially liberal welfare state with extremely harsh immigration policies. Unrest in Eastern Europe continues, and Western anti-immigrant parties refocus on Slavic refugees. Russia is never able to conquer all of Ukraine; the Ukrainian rump state is allowed into the EU but suffers unbelievable agricultural tariffs and population decline that prevent it from ever rebuilding. Putin dies, and Russia descends into unbelievably complex interethnic conflicts resembling modern Congo. UK-France will become white minority countries but overall experience an unrelenting but mild glacial decline.
- Zelenskyy will go down as one of the most important people of the 21st century. Countless international actors will adopt his aesthetics and strategy of appealing to the Western media class.
- India will experience a severe economic crisis in the next 10-15 years due to trying to transition directly to a service-based economy when 60% of the population is still farmers. South India splits off and becomes a moderately prosperous manufacturing state a la Vietnam, North India splits off and becomes Hindu Pakistan that incessantly threatens the South with nuclear war. Tens of millions of Indians move to MENA and East Asia, substantially changing the demographics of these countries.
- Indonesia will eclipse India and many other nations in terms of international relevance. Many Western companies will become increasingly occupied with accessing Indonesian markets.
- South Korea returns to being a far-right dictatorship built on cheap manufacturing. North Korea loses de facto independence due to dependence on Chinese investment, NYT publishes think pieces on the secret to NK "resilience."