Am I wrong in my conclusion about Michelle and Ted?

I think they may wind up together, or at least we are meant to believe it is an open question. Let's review what we see.

The first place Ted comes from the airport is what I'm assuming is their old house. She waves from the door instead of coming out, but he brings his luggage in. Dr Douchebag is not there.

Then at the soccer scene you see Michelle sitting alone in the stands without Dr Douchebag in sight, nor could it be said he was in the bathroom because there was no room for someone to be sitting next to her.

Then we have the somewhat triumphant smile. Triumph over Dr Douchebag?

Let's look at it from the opposite direction. If they had wanted to make it clear Michelle and DD were still together, they could have easily put Dr. Douchebag in either one of those scenes.

And let's not forget how much of a douche he was being while watching the final.